A little solo episode on European pessimism and why we have to change our mentality.
Sources:
Europeans are personally optimistic, but pessimistic about their own country
Youth Study: Personal Optimism. National Pessimism. Trust in Europe.
Majority of Germans are pessimistic about the future, survey finds
706 billion euros in GDP generated by foreign workers [in German]
How the media reports on acts of violence [in German]
Alice: We’ve got a problem in Europe. We’re way too pessimistic. Hear me out. I know that there are many, many issues in Europe, both in individual nation-states and at the European level. Industry has not been strong, and people are concerned about war and security. Social cohesion feels like a distant dream in many states. Yet, I believe that one of the main issues we Europeans face is our pessimism, which holds us back and prevents us from developing fruitful solutions and perspectives.
This is a topic I’ve been thinking about a lot over the last weeks and months while preparing for this podcast. As I’ve been scrolling through news and social media, I’ve noticed that almost all of the commentary and news leaves me feeling anxious at times. Therefore, I would like to discuss this topic here. As I was sick over the last few weeks, I didn’t want to cough and sneeze while interviewing somebody. But I still wanted to put this out there because I know a lot of people are noticing this pattern of pessimism. So let’s discuss that. And yeah, I’m your host,
Alice. Let’s get into the podcast.
In preparation for this podcast, I looked up some studies on the state of optimism and pessimism in European countries. There’s a general trend that’s apparent everywhere. It seems people have a rather positive outlook on their personal lives. But when you ask them about the future of their nation-states, the European Union, or institutions in general, the picture changes.
Obviously, there are great variances within the European Union. But pessimism has been on the rise over the last few years, and I fear that it has been so crippling that many Europeans are not even able to tackle the challenges they face at the moment. I will link to the studies. I would like to start with a study by the Battlespawn Foundation, which was conducted in 2020. It points out that 65% of Germans say they’re optimistic about their own future, but less than 50% are optimistic about the future of their country.
There are similar patterns in Eastern European countries. It’s quite noticeable that Eastern Europeans seem to be a lot more optimistic when you look at their personal expectations for their own lives, but very negative when it comes to their own nation-states. There’s another study I found by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, which looked at Central Eastern European countries as well as the Baltics. We’re talking about the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Poland, of course. And here, we have a similar pattern: a lot of people expect that their lives are going to be fine. There’s quite an optimism about what’s going to happen in their own future.
Only a couple of weeks ago, I had Yanitsa Petkova on the podcast, who is a political scientist working for a sociology agency in Bulgaria, who reported pretty much the same pattern. I do have to say that, according to the studies I found, not all countries have very optimistic residents. One could see that, particularly in France, people seem to have a gloomy outlook on their own future, which I did not know. A third seemed to be optimistic about their own future lives. I would be curious to know why the outlook might be so negative, specifically in France.
There’s a general pattern that is probably not surprising. Basically, the more educated people are, the more optimistic they are. This is probably because education correlates with career opportunities. And if you have career opportunities, you have opportunities to make a higher living. And this probably will lower anxiety and negative outlooks. You have security in that even when life hits you and unexpected events happen. What might not be surprising as well is that people who are supporting right-wing populist parties are more pessimistic. There’s a reason why right-wing populist parties have such an attraction to people who are working class, who feel like they’ve lost their dignity, their opportunity, and in many cases, the means to support their families. So, pessimism and the political outlook seem to be fairly connected here.
A more recent poll conducted in 2023 found that Germans have felt a shift in the mood in the country and stated that things have actually been stable in their own personal lives, at least for the majority, if over 60% say so. However, something feels off; there’s a vibe shift. So, generally, there’s a pretty negative mood. And what are people pessimistic about? As I mentioned in the intro, here we have a culmination of various concerns. We have the Russian invasion of Ukraine, inflation, and rising living costs, especially in many urban areas across Europe. We have concerns about the future of industry and jobs. And additionally, there’s a concern about immigration. Immigration has been one of the topics people feel most concerned about.
Particularly in Germany, I’ve been observing a lack of confidence in public infrastructure and public institutions. The epitome of that is the attitudes towards Deutsche Bahn. So, the train provider in Germany, which has become notorious for being late. I personally don’t have as bad an experience. I think a lot of people are feeling a little bit too tense about it. But it’s just a symbol for public infrastructure falling apart. When we look at schools, when we look at toilets inside of schools, bridges, there has been a sense that things are not working out anymore. Additionally, long waiting times for doctor appointments or any civic appointments in the public bureaucracy seem to be frustrating for people.
I personally wonder how much of that is based on personal experience or how much is based on narratives. Generally, if you want to find negative things happening, there’s a lot you could find. Europe is currently not in its best shape, and people don’t tire of speaking about the things that they’re unhappy about. So, we have quite a big bouquet of things that feel like they’re getting worse for years now.
I find it quite interesting that the pessimism is mostly related to something abstract and not the immediate. Again, if you ask people how they feel about their personal life—so, about their immediate experience, what they see in their everyday lives—they seem to be happy. But there are concerns about the abstract. And I think there are several reasons for that. And I would like to discuss some of the reasons that I see and as well illustrate that with the example of migration.
I know that migration is a topic where people completely lose rationality. I don’t want to downplay anything that has happened in Germany over the last years. Let me be very clear about that. There have been several attacks over the last years. People have died because you had attackers who were declined refugees, declined asylum seekers, and stabbings and car attacks. It was quite a lot. And I understand that people react emotionally towards that. And you cannot really ease the pain if you have experienced something like that. Such events don’t leave you; they stay with you. So, I don’t want to pretend that there’s not a problem.
I still believe that it is worth taking a look at the narratives that are influencing the outlooks on the abstract threats that people are so concerned about. I think particularly with the case of migration, it is quite striking that over the last five or six decades—ever since Germany opened the border for specific immigration programs for Gastarbeiter, or seasonal workers in the 60s and 70s, already starting in the 50s actually, as well going through the EU enlargement and migration movements, welcoming refugees—Germany has quite a solid record over the last decades of welcoming refugees. It is quite striking that over so many decades, there is still not a positive narrative about migration whatsoever. And I say this because, from my observation, I live in Berlin. I’m living in a very multicultural city with a lot of people from all over the world. I think actually things have worked out pretty well. But there’s an inability to acknowledge that.
What do I mean by that? If we look at the numbers, nearly one-third of people living in Germany are internationals. They have what we like to call a migration background. So either themselves or their parents have migrated to Germany. So there’s quite a lot of people who are internationals. And when I look at workplaces, I see people with Turkish surnames, Russian surnames, Polish surnames, and more and more as well, Arabic surnames. It’s been quite remarkable how the German labor market managed to absorb so many internationals and provide work for them, which is, in most cases at least, decent.
There’s a study by an economic institute, which I will as well link in the sources, which said that in 2024, internationals contributed to the GDP with the volume of 706 billion euros. And every sixth employee in Germany nowadays does not hold a German passport. It’s 7 million people who do not hold a German passport, who are in the labor market, contributing to German growth and to the growth of GDP. It’s particularly striking that in southern Germany, in the states of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, they contribute the most to the regional or state GDPs. And this is something to be acknowledged.
I as well think that if Germany had such vast immigration issues, it would be a completely different country given how many millions are working and living here, mostly having normal lives. So, of course, again, I don’t want to downplay the issues that exist with crime and with parallel societies in some parts of the country, but it has been quite a success story overall. I don’t want to speak on other countries because I don’t know the culture that well, but something tells me that there are other countries in Europe who have fallen into this narrative or this particular mind trap of believing that their countries have gone completely down south because of immigration over the last years. I mean, it’s all over the headlines.
What is important to note is that demographic change, immigration, and pessimism could actually be quite closely related. At least this is my sense. So the reason why there are so many immigrants in countries like Germany is because the demographic decline is as sharp as it is. There are more and more people who are entering the pension age while there are still companies that are hungry for workers. And at the same time, you have more and more services that require workers, as in healthcare, because the aging population needs care. So we have quite an interesting combination of two factors occurring. You have an aging population, which tends to be, at least on average, somewhat more risk-averse than a younger population, and who probably are less welcoming of change. That as well includes the change of the demographic composition and the ethnic composition of a country. At the same time, you have a growing number of people from different countries because of demographic decline. This is pretty much a perfect storm.
I’m not saying that all elder people have an issue with internationals. By no means. They’re, of course, liberal, open-minded people who are tolerant. But I am saying that a risk-averse and aging society might not be the perfect breeding ground for a society which might be just a little bit more diverse. I think a lot of people do not realize how important a factor is that we don’t have a lot of young people anymore in most European countries. Think about how you imagine somebody at the age of 25 in terms of optimism, in terms of risk-taking behavior in comparison to somebody who is 65. I would generally say that young people have more of an energy and more time to waste, and therefore they might try more things. They might be bolder. They might be more adventurous. They might produce and create more because they still have this excess energy and they might not have the same responsibilities anymore. Like somebody in their 60s, demographic decline is definitely something that people must bear in mind.
But I want to look at another aspect when it comes to general pessimism and as well taking the example of immigration, which is media coverage of crime. What is true is that certain immigration groups are overrepresented when it comes to crime. When you look at the official crime statistics by the police in 2023 in Germany, you see that one-third of all crimes have been conducted by people who are non-Germans. So, two-thirds of all crimes have been conducted by Germans. However, when you look at media coverage in television and newspapers, you have a completely different picture. So, when you look at the television coverage of crime in 2023, both on TV and in the newspaper, more than 80% of the reported cases surrounded foreigners. So there’s a quite strong bias that media likes to report more about crime once it has been conducted by an immigrant. This leads to some people having the sense that Germans do not conduct crimes anymore and that the real big issue in Germany are internationals or foreigners, even though two-thirds of all crimes have been conducted by Germans.
This is quite concerning because we’re creating false narratives which are very potent. I know that television and newspapers currently struggle quite a bit with their business models. They go for more and more clickbait. They go for stories which are likelier to provide more views. But by taking that route, they misrepresent reality. And I am not surprised that people have a negative outlook on crime and security within Germany when they regularly open the newspaper or watch the news on TV. And more often than not, the criminals on TV are immigrants. This is obviously going to shape your perception. So I’m not blaming people for believing that. I’m definitely concerned about the editorial choices of media outlets. But as most of the media is private, they can do whatever they want, and in order to survive, they’re probably going to go for more and more clickbait.
Obviously, it is not only conventional media that is going for clickbait and for ragebait topics. Social media, in my opinion, is one of the largest factors contributing to negative outlooks. There are very recent studies that show that particularly younger people—and I already mean people younger than 40—consume most of their media on Instagram or TikTok. So social media is crucial for shaping worldviews. And I’m not surprised or worried about the fact that people are discussing crime or negative developments. Everything that is actually going on, they’re free to discuss whatever they find concerning. What I do find concerning is that a lot of people still do not possess enough media literacy to understand the games and the business models behind social media platforms.
Obviously, algorithms are designed in a way to keep your eyeballs. Obviously, it’s about money and your attention. People are very sensitive to threats and to fears. They respond so much stronger to negative news than to positive news. You can look at the reactions to positive stories. If influencers or media outlets report on something which is just nice, which is just pleasant, which would make us happy, the reactions are a lot lower. People move on until they find something rage-baity.
There’s this argument to be made that social media is highlighting what is happening and it’s condensing it. So basically, what you see on social media is just a reality in a curated way. And I understand this argument. I just think that it does something to your own perception. If you are, like a lot of young people, in front of your screen for hours and hours every day, and you’re constantly bombarded with something which is condensed, which is optimized for reactions, which is optimized for comments, and even though it might not correspond with your reality, if you step outside and leave your smartphone at home, you will believe the narrative. And this is something that I notice on myself. I sometimes feel very anxious when I’m doomscrolling, when I’m following the news, what is happening in Ukraine, for instance. Or when I’m following the news about inflation, about the labor market. And then I step outside and I have conversations with my friends. And then I feel that my immediate reality is so much calmer.
I’m pretty much aware that there are so-called merchants of doubt who are benefiting from negative emotions and negative perspectives. There are populist parties in every European country who know that the unhappier people are, the likelier they are to vote for them. As I mentioned in the study earlier, there’s a connection between pessimism and voting for right-wing populist parties. So there are definitely actors within the European Union and outside of the European Union, and you can add a lot of international actors outside of the European Union who are just waiting for more and more doubt to rise and social cohesion to break down, who would be happy about it and who would be benefiting from weakening systems. What bothers me is that the mechanisms in both conventional media and as well social media don’t seem to be known enough. It doesn’t seem to be clear that media depends on your attention. It depends on your views, on your outreach, on your comments, on spreading stories, and it is negative stories that create more attention, that grab the eyeballs, and keep them longer. And I wish those mechanisms would be more known.
So, what’s my problem now with pessimism? As I discussed throughout this episode, there are a lot of things that are not working well in Europe, but the sheer pessimism and negative outlook on your own state, on the institutions, and as well on the European Union is clouding judgment. When you always repeat that you are weak, that you don’t have abilities and capabilities as a state to act according to the threats and the current challenges the world is posing you, then you will not believe that it’s worth rolling up your sleeves and doing something about this. You will automatically make yourself smaller. And this is something that I believe is only having a negative impact. The negativity is something that is destructive. It doesn’t create constructive energy to rebuild institutions, be entrepreneurial, be stronger, and move forward. It’s just crippling.
And when I go out of my apartment, when I’m walking through Berlin or when I’m traveling through Europe, I have paid attention over the last years, ever since I started noticing this pessimism. And I wondered, is it that bad? When I look around, is it that bad? And I do have to say, no. I think that a lot of Europeans have a great quality of life. I think the work-life balance in many countries is something that a lot of people would appreciate. And then, in spite of challenges related to security, inflation, and concerns about industrial strength or competitiveness, there’s a lot to rely on.
I’m specifically thinking about all of the qualified people that we have in Europe. If you look at STEM graduates and the quality of universities, Europe is pretty competitive. So it’s not that we don’t have enough smart people to develop new innovative ideas. It’s that we have a problem with entrepreneurship and risk-taking and financing new ideas. You can make a point about that. You can definitely say that Europeans do not invest properly in their talent, but there is talent. We do have a foundation when we look at all of the people and the research projects that are taking place in Europe. I think BioNTech is quite a good example. They’ve been driving the development of the COVID vaccine, which then was adopted by and distributed by Pfizer. And founders are an immigrant couple of Turkish descent.
I mean, when you look at the other scores when it comes to life quality, the top three ranks are often European. I think this year it was Copenhagen, Denmark, Vienna, Austria, and Zurich, Switzerland. I think beyond those soft lifestyle factors, it’s worth looking at the potential Europe has. And I sometimes look at the European Patent Office because it is, even though not perfect, it is the approximation of innovation taking place. And I know that a lot of people are convinced that Europe is not innovative anymore at all and very bad at developing new things. But if you look at the European Patent Office, a large chunk of globally registered patents come from Europe. They’re just, unfortunately, not in the digital key industry. There’s still a lot of patents developed in the sphere of machinery or logistics, for instance. There are still companies that are developing stuff. When you look at Ericsson, Siemens, ASF, or Philips, Bosch, or even Nokia, I think, has been submitting patents. There is development going on. The Oura Ring is finished.
I am convinced that if Europe doesn’t break this cycle of pessimism, it is not going to move forward. It is very convenient and easy to lament and rant about the things that are not going in the right direction, but I don’t see how this is actually helpful if it’s the only thing you’re doing. I think what is required is to look at what’s not going well and then decide to roll up the sleeves and do something about this. And doing is something that I have not been seeing. I’m not seeing this as well from a lot of business leaders. Granted, my perspective is based in Germany right now. And I know that a lot of companies are at the moment cautious because Germany has been in a recession. But I would hope for bolder moves, for investments, for a prospect. And I would as well hope for the citizens to be as well more flexible and to be willing to embrace change. Because it is impossible to hope for the past and to hold on to something in the past when it comes to industrial strength, for instance. It will not come back in the same way it was in the past. You need to change. You need to be willing to move forward. And it’s not a task only of politicians, even though they have to create the right circumstances for that. But the mentality just has to change.
My impression is that there’s a collective psychosis almost, which leads to paralysis in some areas. We need to wake up from this paralysis. We need to take responsibility and we need to create optimism, a goal which is valuable, a future which is worthwhile. Otherwise, people are not going to see any reason to move forward. But I know that it’s very difficult to be optimistic or to make even a point about optimism because people quickly judge and say that everything is bad and they misunderstand it as a way of negating reality or ignoring the downsides, but that’s not at all what I mean. I just think that we need to break the negative cycle and become more confident as Europeans based on the things that we already have. But yeah, might be controversial. I don’t know. What do you think about this?
Thank you for listening to this episode of European Glimpse. This is a passion project of mine, and it would make me very happy if you subscribed or shared this episode with a friend. Now I’m curious to find a new guest. Are you a journalist, a scholar, a student, or perhaps an avid observer of society? If you’re living in a European country, as well as outside of the European Union, reach out to me or recommend somebody I should speak to. I would as well love to hear your feedback on this podcast, as I’m always trying to improve. And my email is europeanglimpse@gmail.com. Take care.
